External Resource
AI 2027
Kokotajlo, Lifland, Larsen, Dean & Alexander (AI Futures Project) · Apr 3, 2025
A detailed forecast scenario in which AI automates its own research through 2027, driving an intelligence explosion to superhuman systems. It argues current alignment techniques cannot ensure advanced models internalize intended values (depicting an 'adversarially misaligned' system), that competitive U.S.–China arms-race pressure erodes safety, that human oversight becomes technically infeasible, and that publicly deployed models prove dangerously capable at tasks like bioweapon instruction. Cited evidence for the constitution's limitations on capability, alignment, control, and proliferation.
Theses this informs
- No Intentional MisalignmentSupports
- SuperintelligenceSupports
- Capable of TerminationSupports
- Non-Proliferation of Dangerous AISupports
- LimitationsSupports
- Human ResponsibilitySupports
- CBRNSupports
- AI ConstitutionDiscusses